I think this settles the debate as to whether you need a proven reliable superstar top level goal scorer to succeed in the playoffs. Not only do I not see causation, there is not even correlation. Of course, teams who win have reasonably good goal scorers. They would not make the playoffs otherwise. But the link between superstars, top level sustained performance, and winning in MLS playoffs is otherwise just not there.
I went through the MLS Cup winners and runners-up from 2015-2020. I noted how high that team's top scorer ranked that year in regular season MLS. Then I checked how many playoff goals that player scored and the number of playoff games that team played. I also note where that team ranked overall for goals scored during the season. That's the first two tables.
The third table reflects the league's top scorer, how his team finished, and his performance in the playoffs. The last table has the rank of NYCFC's leading scorer and the team rank in the league for scoring
MLS Cup Winning Team | Top Scorer Rank | Player’s Playoff Goals/ Team Playoff Games | Team Rank Goals (Season) |
2020 Crew | 4 | 2/4 | 4 |
2019 Seattle | 17 | 4/4 | 11 |
2018 Atlanta | 1 | 4/5 | 1 |
2017 Toronto | 8 | 1/5 | 1 |
2016 Seattle | 11 | 2/6 | 13 |
2015 Portland | 7 | 2/6 | 17 |
So the league's top scorer won MLS cup once. Twice the Cup winner did not have anybody in the top 10. Four of the six winners had their season's top scorer net less than 0.5 goals per game in the playoffs. Now they might have had someone else score more in the playoffs, but that doesn't support the theory that you need proven scorers to win in MLS playoffs. You do need the good fortune of having somebody, anybody get hot at the right time.
Portland won MLS Cup in 2015 after ranking 17th in goals scored for the season and Seattle won twice without being in the top 10.
And not for nothing, but the Crew's best 2020 scorer who ranked 4th best in the league was Zardes, and nobody thinks he is a build-your-team-around kind of guy (Caleb Porter possibly excepted).
MLS Cup Runner-Up Team | Top Scorer Rank | Player’s Playoff Goals/ Team Playoff Games | Team Rank Goals (Season) |
2020 Seattle | 3 | 2/4 | 6 |
2019 Toronto | 12 | 2/4 | 7 |
2018 Portland | 29 | 3/6 | 11 |
2017 Seattle | 19 | 3/5 | 10 |
2016 Toronto | 3 | 4/6 | 7 |
2015 Crew | 1 | 4/5 | 2 |
Half the teams who made MLS cup final and lost had nobody in the top 10 season scorers. But 4 of these 6 managed at least 0.5 G/Gm. On average, the runners up ranked higher in team scoring for that season than the winners did.
League Top Scorer | Team Finish | Player Playoff Goals/Team Playoff Games |
2020 Rossi - LAFC | Lost First Round | 0 (DNP)/ 1 |
2019 Vela – LAFC | Lose Conference Finals | 2/2 |
2018 Martinez – ATL | Won MLS Cup | 4/5 |
2017 Nikolic – CHI | Lost First Round | 0/1 |
2016 BWP – RB | Lose Conf Semis (team's first round) | 1/2 |
2015 Giovinco – TFC | Lose Knockout Round | 0/1 |
The leading MLS scorer won MLS cup once in 6 years, and 4 times his team failed to get past its first playoff round.
NYCFC Highest Ranking Scorer | Team Rank Goals Scored | Result |
2020 – 27 | 7 | Lose First Round |
2019 - 5 | 2 | Lose Semifinals |
2018 - 11 | 7 | Lose Semifinals (also only playoff series win) |
2017 - 2 | 6 | Lose Semifinals |
2016 - 2 | 1 | Lose Semifinals |
2015 – 4 | 6 | No playoffs |
NYCFC had a top 5 league scorer 4 years out of 6. They never got past the conference semifinals and won exactly one playoff round. In 2016 they had the league's second leading scorer and the most team goals, and were blown out in a 2-game series with zero goals scored.
In 2020 NYCFC for the first time does not have a reliable league best level scorer and suddenly that's why we never win in the playoffs.
ETA: 4 times in the last 6 years the team that won MLS cup had a leading scorer with fewer goals than NYC's best scorer.
I'm done with this conversation.